Rules of Presidential Politics, Iran, and Bush

1. No Democrat from outside the old Confederacy has won the White House since John F. Kennedy. . . .
2. No Republican has won the White House since Eisenhower who wasn't from Texas or California. . . .
3. No sitting senator has won the presidency since Kennedy. . . .

This election is shaping up as one that will break all the rules. . . .

Here is what the Iranians are seeing: . . . Bush become increasingly weak. . . . Congress making sweeping declarations, but backing off from voting on them . . . . a Republican Party splitting in Congress. . . . a presidential election shaping up in unprecedented ways with inherently unexpected outcomes. . . .

This gives Bush his strange strength. . . . Given the strange dynamics, he is not your normal lame duck. Everyone else is tied in knots in terms of policy and in terms of the election. Bush alone has room to maneuver, and the Iranians are likely calculating that it would probably be safer to deal with this president now rather than expect the unexpected in 2008.

-- George Friedman, Stratfor: Geopolitical Intelligence Report, 7/24/07