The Games Russkies Play

The Russians are chess players and geopoliticians. In chess and geopolitics, the games is routine and then, suddenly, there is an opening. You seize the opening because you might never get another one. The United States is inherently more powerful than Russia, save at this particular moment. Because of a series of choices the United States has made, it is weaker in the places that matter to Russia. Russia will not be in this position in two or three years. It needs to act now.

Therefore, Putin will go to Iran on Oct. 16 and will work to complete Iran's civilian nuclear project. What agreements he might reach with Iran could give the United States nightmares. If the United States takes out Iran's nuclear weapons, the Russians will sympathize and arm the Iranians even more intensely.If the Americans launch an extended air campaign, the Russians will happily increase the supply of weapons even more.

. . . At a certain point, sooner rather than later, the Iranians must examine whether they want to play the role of the Russian cape to the American bull.

-- George Friedman, Stratfor: Geopolitical Intelligence Report, 9/17/07