PROVE IT: Before the Iraq war, the United States suffered a series of terrorist attacks: the bombing and destruction of two American embassies in East Africa in 1998, the terrorist attack on the USS Cole in 2000, and the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Since the Iraq war started, there have not been any successful terrorist attacks against the United States. That doesn't mean the threat has diminished because of the Iraq war, but it does place the burden of proof on those who argue that it has increased. -- Robert Kagan, Washingtonpost.com, 9/26/06

[The proof is in the numbers, and I don't think we have enough hard numbers to declare how the Iraq war affects the picture, for good or ill. Look at the terrorist headcount, for example -- who knows what it is? But we can make some assumptions... Subsequent attacks: 0. Increase in terrorist headcount: X. If subsequent attacks were, say 3, I think it is clear the terrorist headcount would be significantly greater than X, solely because the illusion of terrorist WINS is more attractive to potential recruits than terrorist LOSSES. People naturally gravitate to the winning side. I don't see evidence that terrorism has a winning side at this point. In terms of numbers, known or unknown, where is the evidence of increased threat? -- Kirt]