China is on the move, or haven't you noticed?

China's "smile diplomacy" and its deployment of the "tools of culture" are clearly elements in a purposeful, government-directed campaign to reassure, charm and gain influence. . . .

The hope that China will soon change [to become more Western and democratic], and the assurance that, in the meantime, there is a great deal of money to be made, have helped many in this country into a state of comfortable complacency. . . .

If China stays on its current path, if it continues to grow richer and stronger while remaining autocratic, it will likely become bolder, more assertive, and possibly more aggressive than it is today. If the United States wishes to preserve its present military, diplomatic, and technological advantages, it will have to compete much more vigorously and deliberately than it has been doing in recent years. We are going to have to run faster just to stay in place. But we are unlikely to do so if we cannot even acknowledge to ourselves that we are in a race.

-- Aaron L. Friedberg, CommentaryMagazine.com, October 2007

Pay Attention To China

The Chinese aren't coy about their long-term plans. Beijing last year announced its army will move "from regional defense to trans-regional mobility," including "long-distance maneuvers, rapid assaults and special operations." Its air force will expand "its capabilities in the areas of air strike, air and missile defense, early warning and reconnaissance, and strategic projection."
China now spends an estimated 4.5 percent of its $2.5 trillion GDP on defense (the United States spends 3.9 percent). To continue protecting our interests, we'll need to devote at least 4 percent of our GDP to defense. That's more than we've spent since 1995. But it's been a while since we faced a rising threat like the one China poses today. It's a serious military threat that demands serious military spending. -- Ed Feulner, townhall.com, 4/24/07

PEACEFUL SITS THE POWDER KEG: [On March 4, China announced the] largest jump in its military spending in five years -- 17.8 percent -- to $45 billion. According to military experts, however, even that number is likely understated by as much as a factor of four. ... Fortunately for the PRC, America has a seemingly unlimited supply of gullible lemmings who believe China is conducting this massive buildup for peaceful, defensive purposes only. -- PatriotPost.us, 3/9/07

THE CHINA-SPACE-SEA-IRAQ PROBLEM IN A NUTSHELL: China is moving toward a space warfare capability. . . . The threat to China is the U.S. Navy. . . . The U.S. Navy could interdict China's movement of goods far more readily than China could interdict American movement of goods. . . . China may not be able to control the sea itself, but it cannot live forever with U.S. control. Therefore, it requires a sea-lane-denial strategy. . . . Pursuing a conventional naval strategy will not provide a strategic solution for China within a reasonable time frame. . . . Take out the space-based systems and the efficiency of the [U.S.] Navy plummets dramatically. . . . From the Chinese point of view, the denial of space to the United States would undermine American denial of the seas to China. . . . One of the greatest prices of the Iraq war is . . . the fact that it makes it impossible for the U.S. military to allocate resources for emerging threats. . . [such as the] palpable challenge being posed by China in space. -- George Friedman, Stratfor Geopolitical Intelligence Report, 1/23/07

WATCH FOR CHINESE FIREWORKS

Every society changes from one day to the next. But the economic and social transformation in China, especially since the beginning of the reform era in December 1978, has been particularly startling. Mao regimented the Chinese people, oppressed them, clothed them in totalitarian garb, and denied them their individuality. Today, they may not be free, but they are assertive, dynamic, and sassy. A mall-shopping, Internet connected, trend-crazy people, they are remaking their country at breakneck speed. Deprived for decades, they do not only want more, they want everything. Change of this sort is inherently destabilizing, especially in a one-party state. . . .

Leaving China a half-decade ago, an American banker remarked: "There's a billion people here who don't like following instructions." If anything, Chinese society since then has become even more willful. It may not always be defiant, but it is frequently disobedient. For better and also for worse, we have entered a period marked by the emergence of a great people from millennia of autocratic rule. For better -- because a nation that can barely govern itself will not be capable of dominating the other 200 countries on the planet. For worse -- because so turbulent and fretful a society is unlikely to rise peacefully, or to accept its role as a great power in orderly fashion. Thirty years after the death of Mao, the Chinese people have unfinished business to conduct, and their transition into the future is unlikely to be smooth.

-- Gordon G. Chang, China In Revolt, CommentaryMagazine.com, December 2006